Conservative Intel / Harper Polling Poll: IOWA

Conducted: January 29, 2013
Sample Size: 523
Margin of Error: +/-4.28%

All respondents are likely voters in the 2014 election as determined by previous vote history in mid-term elections.

Senate Poll Analysis

To:                  Conservative Intel
From:              Brock McCleary, Harper Polling
Date:               January 30, 2013
Re:                   Iowa Poll – Senate Race

Summary:
In the race for Iowa Senator Tom Harkin’s open seat, Congressman Steve King is the favorite in a multi-candidate or two-way Republican primary against Congressman Tom Latham.  On the Democratic side, Congressman Bruce Braley will be the Democratic nominee if he wants it.  And few doubt that he does.  Latham starts out slightly ahead of Braley (36%-33%) while King would begin slightly behind Braley (34%-39%).

Analysis:
In a multi-candidate primary, King leads Latham and conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats 31%-26%-16%.  The presence of Vander Plaats and libertarian-leaning candidate Drew Ivers appears to drain a bit of King’s support.

In a two-way race against Latham, King’s lead grows to 46%-29%. 

In the two-way race, King wins his own 4th District 56%-27% and he also wins Latham’s 3rd District 50%-43%).  King wins those who consider themselves “Very Conservative” 52%-22%.

King’s image rating is split at 35% favorable and 35% unfavorable.  This is driven by ideology.  The Very Conservative give him a 72% favorable rating while only 10% of Moderates say the same thing.

Latham starts at +13% on image (37% favorable, 24% unfavorable).  Voters who describe themselves as not affiliated with either party give Latham a net favorable rating of 32%-28% rating.

Those same independent voters give Braley a net favorable rating of 28%-24%.  He stands at 32%-24% with all voters.  His highest marks come from seniors (34%-21%).

In head-to-head matchups, King starts 5% behind Braley (34%-39%) and Latham starts 3% ahead of Braley (36%-33%).  Interestingly, King beats Braley by significantly more in his home 4th District (56%-27%) than Braley beats King in his home 1st District (46%-29%).  Braley wins Women 39%-29%.  It’s a dead heat among Men at 40%-39%.

In the Latham vs. Braley matchup, Latham leads among independents 31%-26%.  The only age group that picks Braley over Latham is seniors (35%-33%).  Women are split: Braley 32%, Latham 31%.  Men are decidedly for Latham 43%-34%.

With Braley under 40% on the ballot against either King or Latham, this has the makings of a very hotly contested Senate race.

GOP Senate Primary

Question:

If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Latham, Steve King, Brad Zaun, Bob Vander Plaats or Drew Ivers?

Question:

If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Latham or Steve King?


Democratic Senate Primary

Question:

If the Democratic primary election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for:  Brad Anderson, Bruce Braley or Kevin McCarthy?

Senate Matchups

Question:

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Steve King or Bruce Braley?
Question:

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Tom Latham or Bruce Braley?
Question:

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for Bob Vander Plaats or Bruce Braley?

Presidential Poll Analysis

To:                  Conservative Intel
From:              Brock McCleary, Harper Polling
Date:               January 30, 2013
Re:                   Iowa Poll – 2016 Presidential Caucuses

The 2016 Republican Caucuses:

On the Republican side, Senator Marco Rubio is out front at 27% with Congressman Paul Ryan in second place at 18%.  After that, former Senator Rick Santorum (14%), Senator Rand Paul (13%) and Governor Chris Christie (12%) are in a tight race for third place.

Among Republicans who have previously attended a caucus, Rubio leads Ryan 29%-21%.  However, among Republicans who plan to attend their first caucus in 2016, Ryan’s support drops to 7%.  Paul (22%) and Santorum (19%) fill the void.

Among voters who consider themselves “Very Conservative”, Rubio leads with 32% followed by Ryan at 18%, Santorum at 15%, and Paul at 14%.  Among the “Somewhat Conservative”, Rubio’s lead over Ryan shrinks to 3% (25%-22%).

The gender splits are revealing.  Paul scores 17% among Men but his support drops to 8% among Women.  Ryan seems a similar drop among Women (14%) compared to Men (22%).  Conversely, Santorum (15% with Women, 12% with Men) and Christie (13% with Women, 11% with Men) do slightly better with Women.

Paul’s support jumps among 18 to 35 year olds.  He leads among these younger voters with 24%, followed by Ryan (21%), Rubio (18%) and Christie (16%).

Among those voting for Congressman Steve King over Congressman Tom Latham in a Senate primary, Rubio leads with 25%, followed by Santorum and Ryan at 18% each.  Among Latham voters, Rubio leads with 36%, followed by Christie at 21% and Ryan at 19%.


The 2016 Democratic Caucuses:

On the Democratic side, it’s bad news for Democratic operatives in Iowa.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vice President Joe Biden and Governor Andrew Cuomo 65%-14%-4%.

Nowhere in the cross tabs is Clinton’s support soft.  Past (63%) and future (71%) caucus goers alike support her overwhelmingly.

Think of all the money Biden and Cuomo will save on airfare to Iowa.

GOP Presidential Primary

Question:
(Republicans only)
If the 2016 Republican Presidential Caucus were held today, who would you vote for: Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, or Scott Walker?

Question:
(Republicans only)
Do you consider yourself a likely 2016 Republican Presidential Caucus Participant?

Question:
(Democrats only)

If the 2016 Democrat Presidential Caucus was held today, who would you vote for:  Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, or Andrew Cuomo?

Democratic Presidential Primary

Question:
(Democrats only)

Do you consider yourself a likely 2016 Democrat Presidential Caucus Participant?

Obama Job Approval

Question:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Generic Congressional Ballot

Question:

If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

Image Ratings

Demographics