Iowa Poll

Senate Race:  Generic Republican leads, but so does Braley

Amid alarming disapproval of President Obama’s job performance and his health care law, Republicans hold a 4% lead on the generic Senate ballot in Iowa.  Many independents remain uncommitted, but Republicans hold an early 8% edge with the group.

Q: If the election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for: the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?

Congressman Bruce Braley has 81% name identification statewide but only a net +4% image rating.  He is strongest in his home 1st Congressional District (42-33%) and the 2nd District to the south, which shares the Cedar Rapids media market (37-27%).
No Republican candidate has greater than 47% name identification in the state, making their image ratings largely uninformative.

On ballot tests against his five potential Republican challengers, Braley outperforms the generic ballot quite well but can get no higher than 42% against any opponent. 

Q: If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Bruce Braley, Democrat or Sam Clovis, Republican?

Q: If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Bruce Braley, Democrat or Joni Ernst, Republican?

Q: If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Bruce Braley, Democrat or Mark Jacobs, Republican?

Q: If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Bruce Braley, Democrat or Matt Whitaker, Republican?

Q: If the election for U.S. Senator were held today, who would you vote for: Bruce Braley, Democrat or David Young, Republican?

Iowa Caucus 2016:  Christie leads the field

Q: If the 2016 Republican Presidential Caucus were held today, who would you most likely support: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum or Scott Walker?

Presidential 2016:  Christie leads Clinton

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only one of five Republican contenders to lead former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton (43-38%) in Iowa.  Christie leads by 2% among women and 8% among men.

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Chris Christie, Republican?

The key difference between Governor Christie and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who trails Clinton by 7%, is their impact on the Democratic vote.  Against Christie, Clinton gets 76% of the Democratic vote while she gets 90% against Cruz.

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Ted Cruz, Republican?

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan had the second best performance against Clinton, trailing 43-46%.  Ryan runs second best to Christie in the most Republican and Democratic congressional districts in the state, Steve King’s 4th District and Bruce Braley’s 1st District.

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Paul Ryan, Republican?

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Rand Paul, Republican?

Q: In an election for President in 2016, who would you most likely vote for: Hillary Clinton, Democrat or Marco Rubio, Republican?

The Burden of Obamacare

President Obama’s net -21% job approval is nearly identical to the net -20% approval of Obamacare.  Disapproval of both is consistent across all congressional districts.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s new health care law?

Previewing the choice next fall, Iowa voters prefer a Senate candidate who opposes Obamacare 52% to 39% for an Obamacare supporter.

Q: Please tell me which of the following candidates for Senate you are more likely to support: A candidate who supports Obamacare or A candidate who opposes Obamacare?

The sample size for the survey is 985 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-3.12%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted November 23-24, 2013 by Harper Polling on behalf of Conservative Intel.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.