Our survey shows Republican Senator Thad Cochran with a 23% lead over challenger Chris McDaniel and a net +42% image among Republican primary voters.  However, the survey also reveals peril for Cochran if the race becomes defined as a contest between the establishment Republican Party candidate and the tea party candidate. 

Fifty-nine percent of the electorate supports a tea party candidate to a non-tea party candidate by 26%.  Sixty-six percent approve of the Republican-led shutdown of the federal government in late October.  A plurality of voters believes Republican leaders in Congress cooperate “too much” with President Obama and Democrats.

Senator Cochran has a stellar net +42% image with Republican primary voters.  Although voters of all stripes generally have a good impression of Cochran, there is a detectable ideological trend within that opinion.

Cochran’s image with self-described “somewhat conservative” voters is a net +48% but falls off to +27% with “very conservative” voters.  Non-tea party voters have a net +68% image of the Senator while it stands at +21% with tea party voters.

Conversely, challenger Chris McDaniel has a net -23% image with non-tea party voters and a +30% image with tea party voters.  In another contrast, women are 10% more likely to have a favorable opinion of Cochran and 9% less likely to have a favorable opinion of McDaniel.

In a head-to-head matchup, Cochran leads McDaniel by 23% overall and 74% among non-tea party voters.  However, the race is tied 43-43% among tea party voters.  Cochran leads by 27% among Republican voters but only 7% among self-described independent voters.

Q: In a primary election for U.S. Senate, which of the following Republicans would you most likely support: Thad Cochran or Chris McDaniel?

• Dislike Cochran
• Like McDaniel
• Vote for McDaniel
• Think GOP leaders cooperate with Obama too much
• Support a tea party Republican candidate over a non-tea party one
• AND vote for Ted Cruz to be the GOP’s nominee in 2016

Overall, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are tied 16-16% on a hypothetical ballot test among potential GOP contenders in 2016.

Q: If the 2016 Republican Presidential primary election were held today, who would you most likely support: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum or Scott Walker?

Governor Christie jumps to 30% on the ballot with Marco Rubio next at 9% among non-tea party Republicans.   Among tea-party Republicans, Cruz leads with 22% followed by Rand Paul at 17%.   Cruz leads Christie among men 19-15% while Christie leads Cruz 17-12% among women.

Misc

Q: Do Republican leaders in Congress cooperate with President Obama and Democrats too much, too little, or about the right amount?

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the Republican-led government shutdown in October over Obamacare?

Q: Would you be more likely to support a Republican candidate who identifies with the Tea Party or a Republican candidate who does not identify with the Tea Party?

Q: Do you support the goals and ideals of the Tea Party

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 710 likely Republican voters and the margin of error is +/-3.68%.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted December 17-18, 2013 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.