Mississippi Republican Primary Poll
December 17-18, 2013

Our survey shows Republican Senator Thad Cochran with a 23% lead over challenger Chris McDaniel and a net +42% image among Republican primary voters.  However, the survey also reveals peril for Cochran if the race becomes defined as a contest between the establishment Republican Party candidate and the tea party candidate. 

Fifty-nine percent of the electorate supports a tea party candidate to a non-tea party candidate by 26%.  Sixty-six percent approve of the Republican-led shutdown of the federal government in late October.  A plurality of voters believes Republican leaders in Congress cooperate “too much” with President Obama and Democrats.

Senator Cochran has a stellar net +42% image with Republican primary voters.  Although voters of all stripes generally have a good impression of Cochran, there is a detectable ideological trend within that opinion.

Cochran’s image with self-described “somewhat conservative” voters is a net +48% but falls off to +27% with “very conservative” voters.  Non-tea party voters have a net +68% image of the Senator while it stands at +21% with tea party voters.

Conversely, challenger Chris McDaniel has a net -23% image with non-tea party voters and a +30% image with tea party voters.  In another contrast, women are 10% more likely to have a favorable opinion of Cochran and 9% less likely to have a favorable opinion of McDaniel.

In a head-to-head matchup, Cochran leads McDaniel by 23% overall and 74% among non-tea party voters.  However, the race is tied 43-43% among tea party voters.  Cochran leads by 27% among Republican voters but only 7% among self-described independent voters.

In a primary election for U.S. Senate, which of the following Republicans would you most likely support: Thad Cochran or Chris McDaniel?

These “independent” Republican primary voters are a significant and unique bloc of the electorate.  They do not wish to affiliate with the Republican Party and they are more likely than Republicans to:

  • Dislike Cochran
  • Like McDaniel
  • Vote for McDaniel
  • Think GOP leaders cooperate with Obama too much
  • Support a tea party Republican candidate over a non-tea party one
  • AND vote for Ted Cruz to be the GOP’s nominee in 2016

2016 Presidential Primary

Overall, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are tied 16-16% on a hypothetical ballot test among potential GOP contenders in 2016.

If the 2016 Republican Presidential primary election were held today, who would you most likely support: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum or Scott Walker?

Governor Christie jumps to 30% on the ballot with Marco Rubio next at 9% among non-tea party Republicans.   Among tea-party Republicans, Cruz leads with 22% followed by Rand Paul at 17%.   Cruz leads Christie among men 19-15% while Christie leads Cruz 17-12% among women.


Q: Do Republican leaders in Congress cooperate with President Obama and Democrats too much, too little, or about the right amount?

Do you approve or disapprove of the Republican-led government shutdown in October over Obamacare?

Would you be more likely to support a Republican candidate who identifies with the Tea Party or a Republican candidate who does not identify with the Tea Party?

Do you support the goals and ideals of the Tea Party

The sample size for the survey is 710 likely Republican voters and the margin of error is +/-3.68%
.  The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted December 17-18, 2013 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Harper Polling