New York CD-21 General Election Poll
September 25-29, 2014
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Brock McCleary, President
DATE: October 1, 2014
RE: Key Poll Findings – New York Congressional District 21 Poll
In the race to replace retiring Democratic Congressman Bill Owens in New York’s 21st Congressional District, Republican Elise Stefanik leads Democrat Aaron Woolf 45-37%.
Generic Congressional Ballot
Just 25% of voters say things in the country are going in the right direction, compared to 70% who say things are on the wrong track. Republicans appear to benefit from this on the generic Congressional ballot, where they lead Democrats 47-38%. Women (43-39%) and men (52-37%) both would prefer to vote for a Republican candidate, although men are stronger in their preference. Independents choose a Republican (46-28%) while Moderates choose a Democrat (49-35%).
Q: In an election for Congress, would you generally prefer to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Elise Stefanik’s favorability rating is at +7% (46% favorable, 39% unfavorable). She has higher name identification than Woolf, who is also viewed favorably by voters (41% favorable, 37% unfavorable). Women have a more favorable opinion of Woolf (44% favorable, 31% unfavorable) than Stefanik (41% favorable, 43% unfavorable) while men view Stefanik more favorably (52% favorable, 37% unfavorable) than Woolf (37% favorable, 42% unfavorable).
Independents have a favorable view of Stefanik (46-41%) but an unfavorable view of Woolf (36-42%) while Moderates have a favorable view of Woolf (49-35%) but view Stefanik unfavorably (45-47%). Woolf has a stronger image with Democrats (68-17%) than Stefanik does among Republicans (62-25%).
Stefanik leads Woolf by 8 points (45-37%) with 8% of voters choosing the Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello and 10% undecided. Many of the patterns from the image tests return on the ballot, with men voting for Stefanik (53-32%) while women side slightly with Woolf (41-38%).
Q: If the election for Congress were held today, who would you vote for: Elise Stefanik, Republican, Conservative, and Independence Party; Aaron Woolf, Democratic and Working Families Party, OR Matt Funiciello, Green Party?
The candidates receive equalizing support from their parties at 68%. Stefanik’s 19 point lead among Independents (49-30%) is driving her lead over Woolf. His advantage over Stefanik among Moderates is smaller at 11 points (45-34%), with Funiciello earning 12%.
We also asked voters to share their opinion about President Obama’s actions against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.
An overwhelming majority approve of this development, 74-16% and this sentiment holds across parties, genders and ideologies.
President Obama’s image stands at 42% favorable to 55% unfavorable. A plurality of voters (43%) have a very unfavorable opinion of the President.