Pennsylvania Governor Democratic Primary Poll
May 12-13, 2014

Summary
With a week to go, Tom Wolf continues to hold a comfortable lead in the Democratic primary election for Governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

However, what is significant about the poll results is how the Wolf campaign continues to control the flow of information in the race. Despite being the unanimous focus of criticism from his opponents, voters are still hearing largely positive things about Tom Wolf.  As his opponents have attempted for weeks to flood the campaign with negative information about Wolf, the inverse has occurred.

Q. If the Democratic primary election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Wolf, Rob McCord, Katie McGinty, or Allyson Schwartz?

Wolf receives 50% on the ballot followed by Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz and Treasurer Rob McCord at 15% each.  Schwartz cuts Wolf’s lead to 42-24% in the Philadelphia/Southeast region. McCord performs best in the Northern Tier and South Central regions where he receives 29% and 18% of the vote respectively.

Campaign Communications

The Wolf campaign has reached a remarkable 90% of likely Democratic primary voters.  This is difficult to achieve on your typical primary campaign budget in a state flush with large and mid-size media markets.  Pennsylvania is a high barrier-to-entry state for unknown candidates.  Fifty-seven percent of voters say that what they have heard about Tom Wolf gives them a favorable opinion of him.  Only 17% report as unfavorable.

By comparison, McCord and Schwartz have reached 58% of voters in closing days of the campaign.  For Schwartz, the information flow is relatively positive (45% favorable-to-38% unfavorable).  For McCord, it is a mixed bag (40% favorable-to-42% unfavorable).  Katie McGinty has the second best information flow in the race (53% unfavorable-to-27% unfavorable), but her reach is the lowest at 44%.

Q. Have you seen, read or heard anything recently about Tom Wolf?

(‘Yes’ only respondents from previous question)
Q. Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Tom Wolf?

Q. Have you seen, read or heard anything recently about Rob McCord?

(‘Yes’ only respondents from previous question)
Q.
Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Rob McCord?

Q. Have you seen, read or heard anything recently about Allyson Schwartz?

(‘Yes’ only respondents from previous question)
Q.
Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Allyson Schwartz?

Q. Have you seen, read or heard anything recently about Katie McGinty?

(‘Yes’ only respondents from previous question)
Q.
Has that information given you a more favorable or more unfavorable opinion of Katie McGinty?

Candidate Images

Lt. Governor Primary Ballot

As always, the low-interest election for Lieutenant Governor provides somewhat murky poll results, as 42% of likely voters are still undecided.  As it were, State Senator Mike Stack and former Congressman Mark Critz are virtually tied at 20% and 18% of the vote respectively. 

Q. If the Democratic primary election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Mike Stack, Mark Critz, Mark Smith, Brandon Neuman, or Brad Koplinski?

In the Philadelphia/Southeast region, Stack leads Brad Koplinski 23-10%.  Likewise, in the Scranton/Lehigh Valley region, Stack leads Koplinski 19-11%.  In the remainder of the state, Critz holds the advantage.  In the Northern Tier, Critz leads Koplinski 25-17%.  In the South Central PA region, Critz leads Stack 25-18%.  Critz runs strongest in his home region of Pittsburgh/Southwest, where he leads Stack 32-19%.

Stack leads Critz among self-identified “liberal” voters by 21-18% while Critz leads Mark Smith among “conservative” voters by 20-17%.

Those who prefer Tom Wolf for Governor support Stack over Critz 26-22%.  Critz and Stack are tied among McCord voters (Critz 20%, Stack 19%) and Schwartz voters (Critz 17%, Stack 17%).  Critz wins McGinty voters 23-15% over Stack.

METHODOLOGY:
The sample size for the survey is 559 likely voters and the margin of error is +/-4.14%.   The Interactive Voice Response (IVR) automated telephone survey was conducted May 12-13, 2014 by Harper Polling.  The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.