2026 Texas Senate Primary Runoff Poll Findings

Dividing the Anti-Incumbent Vote, Hunt’s Standing with Key Groups Forced Paxton into Runoff 

•       Among Texas Republican primary voters, John Cornyn’s image is nearly identical with Ken Paxton voters (23% favorable, 68% unfavorable) and Wesley Huntvoters (22% favorable, 69% unfavorable).

•       Paxton (54%) has a 10% edge in favorability over Cornyn (44%) but underperformed his favorability in the primary by 13%.

•       Cornyn’s primary ballot share (42%) nearly matched his favorability (44%) – as you would expect of an incumbent.

•       On the second-choice ballot, Wesley Hunt led with 29%, followed by Ken Paxton (24%) and John Cornyn (18%).

•       Among Trump Republicans, Hunt was the preferred second-choice candidate at 31%, followed by Paxton (27%) and Cornyn (18%).

•       Paxton was the second-choice candidate of Hunt voters(44%, Cornyn 29%).

•       Paxton’simage with Cornynvoters is 33% favorable and 57% unfavorable.

•       Paxton’s image with Hunt voters is 43% favorable and 52% unfavorable.

•       In the primary, Trump Republicans voted 47% for Paxton, 32% for Cornyn, and 13% for Hunt.

•       Traditional Republicans voted 49% for Cornyn, 24% for Paxton, and 16% for Hunt while Christian conservatives were split between Cornyn and Paxton at 39% each and Hunt at 15%.

A Trump Endorsement of Cornyn Flips the Runoff Ballot In His Favor

•       In the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff ballot, Paxton leads with 43%, Cornyn at 39%, and 18% are undecided.

•       Among those who voted for Hunt in the primary, 38% would vote for Paxton, 31% for Cornyn, and 31% are undecided in the runoff.

•       If President Trump endorsed Cornyn, the ballot would flip with Cornyn leading at 47%, Paxton 36%, and 17% undecided.

•       Among those who previously voted for Cornyn, 88% would now vote for him, 5% for Paxton, and 7% would be undecided. Only 73% of Paxton’s primary election voters would back him again, 19% would now vote for Cornyn, and 8% would be undecided.

•       With the Trump endorsement, Hunt voters move away from Paxton (-7, 31%) and toward Cornyn (+4, 35%).

•       The endorsement would boost Cornyn among Trump Republicans to 48% (-11) for Paxton, 38% (+14) for Cornyn.

•       With the President’s endorsement, half (+10, 50%) of Christian conservatives would vote for Cornyn and 35% (-7) for Paxton.

The sample size is 500 likely 2026 Republican primary election voters in the 2026 Texas primary election. The margin of error is ±4.38% at a confidence interval of 95%. The demography of the survey sample is balanced to accurately represent the geography’s likely-voting population. The data was collected March 6-8, 2026, and respondent interviews were conducted via email and by SMS-to-online. The total percentages of response may not equal 100% due to rounding.