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Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran continues to lead his Republican primary challenger Chris McDaniel. Cochran leads McDaniel 52-35%, a net +7% gain for McDaniel since mid-December when we found Cochran leading 54-31%.
The ideological construct of the race has shifted favorably for McDaniel. In December, Cochran and McDaniel were tied at 43-43% among tea party voters. Now, McDaniel leads 53-35% among tea party voters.
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Democrats hold a 3% lead over Republicans on the generic ballot for United States Senate, 45-42%. Senator Jeff Merkley holds leads of 7% and 12% over his respective challengers, Jason Conger and Monica Wheby. In the race for Governor, Democratic incumbent John Kitzhaber holds a narrow 3% lead over Republican challenger Dennis Richardson, 46-43%.
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Republicans hold a 47-42% advantage on the generic ballot for Senate among Colorado likely voters. Eighty-seven percent of self-identified conservative voters prefer the Republican candidate and an identical 87% of liberal voters prefer the Democratic candidate. Independents prefer the Republican 41-33%.
Senator Mark Udall leads Congressman Cory Gardner 45-44%. The gender gap is balanced with Udall leading by 4% among women (47-43%) and Gardner leading by 4% among men (46-42%). Independents favor Gardner 41-35%.
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There are two recent events in the Democratic primary race for Governor: former Auditor General Jack Wagner announced his candidacy as the only hopeful from the Southwest region and York businessman Tom Wolf launched a multimillion dollar advertising campaign across the state, including the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh media markets.
While the talk has been about Wagner’s potential for geographic advantage, the real impact in the race has been Wolf’s spending. In fact, it has given form to a race that to this point has been filled with candidates who lack name identification beyond niche constituencies.
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Republicans hold a 4% advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot for Senate. However, Democratic Senator Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie 44-38%. Medicare Advantage heats up as a 2014 campaign issue.
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Republicans lead 37-36% on the generic Senate ballot, while Congressman Steve Daines holds a lead over all potential Democratic opponents
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Republicans lead 36-32% on the generic ballot for Senate, but Senator Shaheen leads former Senator Scott Brown by 5%
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Republicans lead 35-34% on the generic ballot for Senate, while Congressman Tom Cotton leads Senator Pryor 42-36%
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Democrats lead 42-41% on the generic ballot for Senate, but Republican Terri Lynn Land leads Democrat Gary Peters by 5%
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Senator Landrieu holds a 13% lead in the primary, but trails Congressman Bill Cassidy by 1% on a two-way ballot test
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Democrats lead 44-43% on the generic ballot for Senate, while Senator Hagan and Speaker Thom Tillis are tied at 44-44%
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Senator Begich trails Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and former Attorney General Dan Sullivan
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In the race for the Republican nomination to fill the seat of Senator Tom Coburn, Congressman James Lankford leads by 36%. Lankford’s strong advantage is driven by his popularity in the Oklahoma City media market where he leads House Speaker T.W. Shannon 77-9%. In the other large media market of Tulsa, Shannon trails by just 3%.
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Two key factors are driving Republicans’ best hope at winning a U.S. Senate seat since Spencer Abraham defeated Bob Carr in 1994. First, former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land starts the election year with a 13% name identification advantage over Congressman Gary Peters as well as an overall more favorable image with voters.
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Top Story of 2013, Senate in '16: Kane & Sestak, Digging deeper on Obamacare, the PA Transportation bill, State Lottery privatization, Minimum Wage, Paycheck Protection, Business vs. Labor, Favorite NFL team, and familial relations between Steelers and Eagles fans
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Our survey shows Republican Senator Thad Cochran with a 23% lead over challenger Chris McDaniel and a net +42% image among Republican primary voters. However, the survey also reveals peril for Cochran if the race becomes defined as a contest between the establishment Republican Party candidate and the tea party candidate.
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Amid alarming disapproval of President Obama’s job performance and his health care law, Republicans hold a 4% lead on the generic Senate ballot in Iowa. President Obama’s net -21% job approval is nearly identical to the net -20% approval of Obamacare. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only one of five Republican contenders to lead former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton (43-38%) in Iowa.
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The geographic and ideological contours of the Democratic primary race for Governor are beginning to take shape. Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz enjoys both a name identification advantage and a 7% lead over her nearest competitor, Katie McGinty.
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In a preview of the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Vice President Joe Biden 64%-21%. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo nabs 2% of the vote.
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Senator Lindsey Graham leads a field of potential Republican challengers by a wide margin, with 51% of the vote. The next closest challenger tops out at 15%. Looking ahead to the 2016 South Carolina Presidential Primary, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie holds a small lead over a field of six contenders.
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With 2014 shaping up as a big year in South Carolina politics, Harper's statewide poll on behalf of Conservative Intel shows the Republican incumbents with early leads. Senator Lindsey Graham is out in front of Democrat Jay Stamper by 17% (47%-30%) and Governor Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen by 9% (48%-39%).
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Newark Mayor Cory Booker appears headed for a sizable victory tomorrow in New Jersey’s Special Election to fill the Senate seat of the late Frank Lautenberg. Booker’s impending victory is fueled by leads of 20% or more among Moderate voters and voters in the New York and Philadelphia media markets. Booker’s net +12% image with voters is stellar, though his wide lead is largely a function of voters’ negative perception of Republican Steve Lonegan (net -7% image).
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A new Harper Polling/Public Policy Polling survey, conducted on behalf of Politico, finds Terry McAuliffe with his largest lead yet in either company’s polling. McAuliffe now has a 9 point advantage, getting 44% to 35% for Ken Cuccinelli and 12% for Libertarian Robert Sarvis.
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The poll shows little vulnerability for Pennsylvania Congressman Bill Shuster in what is being billed as one of the nation’s top tea party primary challenges to a sitting Republican incumbent.
Shuster draws 62% of the Republican primary vote against Art Halvorson and Travis Schooley, who garner 11% and 5% respectively.
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Our survey shows Democrat Terry McAuliffe leading Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli 42%-37% in a race that is being heavily impacted by Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, who is polling at 10%.
As a Libertarian, the assumption that Sarvis is siphoning votes from Republican Cuccinelli is only partly true. Sarvis’ support on the ballot comes from 4% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans and 18% of independent or third party voters, some of whom are undoubtedly Libertarians.
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Former Governor Mike Rounds would begin a race against three lesser-known candidates with 58% of the vote and a 72% positive image among South Dakota Republicans.
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The open seat of Democratic Senator Tim Johnson is rated one of the two most likely to flip control in the 2014 midterm elections. Our survey finds Republicans holding a significant 46%-36% lead on the generic ballot. Former Republican Governor Mike Rounds starts the race with a sizable 52%-38% lead over Rick Weiland, a former aide to Senator Tom Daschle.
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Former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land holds a sizable advantage in the Republican primary election for the U.S. Senate. The survey tested both a 4-way and 2-way primary ballot. In the 4-way matchup, Land leads Holland Mayor Kurt Dysktra 45%-16%. Rob Steele, University of Michigan Regent, and Kim Small, Oakland County District Judge, received 4% and 2% respectively.
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Congressman Bill Cassidy pulls slightly ahead of Senator Mary Landrieu in the race for Senate, Senator David Vitter leads New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu in a hypothetical match up for Governor in 2015, and Uncle Si is Louisiana's favorite Robertson Family Member from the hit TV show Duck Dynasty.
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Senator Mark Pryor faces difficult odds in his bid for reelection against Republican Congressman Tom Cotton: Pryor’s image rating is upside down (38% favorable, 40% unfavorable). Pryor trails Cotton on the ballot 41%-43%. President Obama job approval stands at 28% approve, 62% disapprove. Arkansas voters overwhelmingly believe that Pryor votes with President Obama’s agenda (53% votes for Obama’s policies, 17% votes against Obama’s policies)
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Senator Mike Enzi begins a primary campaign against Liz Cheney with a substantial lead of 55%-21%...We caution that these numbers do not rule out a Cheney victory. What the poll does makes abundantly clear is that she is going to have to prosecute a vigorous case against the sitting Senator. Because the jury is skeptical at the outset that a change of representation in the Senate is needed.
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The results of three poll questions illustrate the challenges Governor Tom Corbett faces in pursuit of reelection. The baseline number for any generic Republican candidate running for Governor is 40% at this stage. Governor Corbett has the support of 24% of the electorate who believe he deserves reelection. A gubernatorial campaign that becomes a referendum on the direction of Pennsylvania’s economy under Governor Corbett would yield 29% of voters who believe it is “getting better.”
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Harper Polling conducted an experiment intended to shed light on a topic of much debate among political pollsters: Who do you call? Is your call file composed of registered voters or voters with a predetermined vote history?
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Democratic Congressman Ed Markey holds a formidable 12% lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez in the race to succeed Secretary of State John Kerry. However, there are clear signs of opportunity for Gomez.
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In the race to succeed retiring Senator Mike Johanns, Republicans hold a considerable advantage over Democrats. Fifty percent of likely voters in Nebraska prefer to be represented by a Republican in the U.S. Senate; 30% prefer a Democrat. Men opt for the Republican by 27% (52%-25%). Among women, the Republicans’ lead drops to 13% (48%-35%).
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On behalf of Minnesota Jobs Coalition, Harper Polling conducted a survey of likely voters in Minnesota. Looking ahead to next year’s gubernatorial campaign, 41% of Minnesota voters say Governor Mark Dayton deserves reelection. Forty-seven percent would prefer to give someone else a chance.
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Former Governor Sarah Palin leads a Republican primary ballot with the three most likely candidates: Palin, Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and 2010 GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller. Palin leads slightly among both men and women at +1% and +4% respectively. Among voters who describe themselves as “very conservative”, Palin’s lead grows to 20% over Treadwell (43%-23%).
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As expected, former Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer holds an early 4% lead over his nearest competitor in the race to fill the seat of retiring Senator Max Baucus. That's where the good news ends for Schweitzer...
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Generic Congressional Ballot, Obama Job Approval, Immigration, Gay Marriage, North Korea, Stimulus, Social Security
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GOP Senate Primary: Cassidy leads Roemer by 24%, Landrieu leads Cassidy 46-41%, 38% see Landrieu as 'moderate', Only 9% say she votes 'against her party leaders', Why Landrieu remains opposed to gay marriage and Obamacare...
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Kean & Codey lead their respective primaries for a Menendez open Senate seat, Christie's CPAC snub plays well at home, Christie's coattails looming large for the GOP, Opinions of Hurricane Sandy recovery, NJ's favorite football and baseball teams
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GOP Senate primary is wide open. Granholm is the clear frontrunner on the Democratic side with 58%. However, Granholm's -3% image ratings make her a problematic general election candidate.
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Democratic & Republican Governor '14 Primaries, Medicaid Expansion, Most Respected Former PA Politician, Sandusky Prosecution, Marcellus Shale, Lottery Privatization
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Who wins the Sequestration fight? Is Obama more of a friend or foe toward Israel? Who controls Washington: Obama or GOP? SOTU Proposals: Pre-K & Minimum Wage
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Palin trails Parnell in GOP Senate Primary. Gov. Parnell leads Sen. Begich in head-to-head matchup. All other Republicans trail Begich.
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Iowa Caucus Goers: Hillary way ahead with 63% / Iowa Republicans: Rubio 27%, Ryan 18% / The race for Harkin's Senate seat is wide open
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Capito leads Rahall 50%-32%. Obama job approval at 34%-59%. Generic Congressional Ballot: GOP 45% to Dem 36%
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Capito leads McKinley 71%-15%. Rahall bests the field of Democrats with 38%.
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Governor Corbett's lawsuit against the NCAA. The Biggest PA Story of 2012. Messaging Pension Reform. The Andy Reid Firing. The Battle of PA Convenience Stores.
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The Norquist No-New-Taxes Pledge. Is Compromise a Dirty Word? Clinton Era Tax Rates. A 2016 GOP Primary Ballot. The Media's Treatment of Romney.