California Redistricting/Prop. 50 polling
New Poll – Corruption Key Message – Schwarzenegger Key Messenger For No on Prop 50 Campaign
The United States Justice Foundation released the results of two polls on the prospects of Proposition 50. The polls, conducted by Harper Polling, give one of the first independent looks at the special election slated for November 4th, 2025. Both polls were conducted in the last week. In addition to testing Prop 50 the survey tested whether a measure should be proposed to return directly to the independent redistricting commission after the 2026 election.
Key Findings:
Six-in-ten voters support using an independent commission to draw the congressional district maps
49% of voters opposeauthorizing the legislature to draw the maps.
15% of voters who oppose Newsom’s contextualized efforts mistakenly vote Yes on Proposition 50, highlighting voter confusion related to the ballot language.
Testing the Proposition 50 language, we find support at 54% Yes and 29% No, while 17% are undecided.
48% of voters would support a ballot measure to return to the original congressional district map in 2028, when Trump is out of office. Only 29% oppose.
When highlighting corruption concerns about powerfulpoliticians drawing themselves custom congressional districts, the ballot narrows considerably to 45% Yes, 40% No
“The surveys are clear; voters want politics out of redistricting. What they don’t agree on is how that should be accomplished. Defeating Newsom’s plan will take a targeted and aggressive effort that exposes the corruption involved in the drawing of these maps. By a wide margin, voters in California would support returning to the independent commission’s districts in 2028, when Trump and Newsom will both be on their way out of office,” said veteran political consultant Dave Gilliard.
Jim Lacy, founder of the United States Justice Foundation, commented on the findings, stating, “The initial ballot shows a lead for Prop 50 because the Governor has shaped the election as a California Governor Gavin Newsom vs. President Donald Trump and that distinction gives the ballot an edge.
“However, this poll shows the ‘No on 50’ campaign can find a path to victory – voters overwhelmingly like the independent redistricting commission and view the people behind the commission like Arnold Schwarzenegger favorably. When they learn that the Governor is undermining the democratic values of our state for a personal agenda they turn on the proposal and the numbers quickly erode for Prop 50. Voters need to know what political insiders already know – this isn’t just a power grab this is a corrupt power grab.”
CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL MEMO ON THE POLL
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