August 2025 — Cooper shows early lead on Whatley in US Senate Race
August 14, 2025
RALEIGH — Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper has an 8.2-point lead in the race against Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley for North Carolina’s open US Senate seat. According to the latest Carolina Journal Poll, conducted by Harper Polling, 47.3% of voters say that they would vote for Cooper if the Senate election were held today. By comparison, only 39.1% said they would vote for Whatley.
The conviction of Cooper’s supporters is also stronger than those who say they would vote for Whatley. Only about a quarter of voters (24.7%) say they would “definitely” vote for Whatley, and 14.4% would “probably” vote for him. Meanwhile, 40% of voters say they will “definitely” vote for Cooper, and 7.3% say they will “probably” vote for him.
This assuredness is likely due to Cooper’s superior name recognition. Only 4% of voters say they have “never heard of” Cooper, compared to 51.3% who say they have “never heard of” Whatley. Cooper’s favorability is also higher than Whatley’s. Cooper’s net favorability is positive by 7.5 points, with 47.3% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 39.8% having an unfavorable opinion. Whatley’s net favorability, on the other hand, is positive by 3.6 points (which is within the poll’s ±3.98% margin of error), with 14.9% of voters stating a favorable opinion of him and 11.3% expressing an unfavorable opinion.
“North Carolina’s race for Senate has only just begun, but the Whatley campaign appears to have a lot of legwork in front of them if they want to be competitive,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “Cooper certainly has an advantage in this race, having held statewide office for 24 consecutive years. The name ID figures should not give either party heartburn or confidence.”
Cooper’s successor, Gov. Josh Stein, also enjoys positive approval ratings. A majority of voters (50.5%) approve of the job Stein is doing as governor. His net approval rating is +20.4 points, with only 30.1% of voters sharing disapproval. Support for his recent vetoes, however, is more divided. While many voters were unsure (31.1%), 36% said Stein’s vetoes reflect “a careful approach to policy that checks overreach by the legislative branch,” and 32.9% said this reflected “a politically motivated obstruction that blocks legislative priorities.”
Unlike Stein, President Donald Trump is experiencing majority disapproval (50.3%) for the first time in the Carolina Journal Poll since taking office in January. His net job approval is underwater by 2.5 points, with 47.8% of voters expressing approval of the job he is doing in office.
These results are similar to the results when we asked whether voters believe the United States is headed in the “right direction” or off on the “wrong track.” Almost half (49.7%) said they think the US is on the “wrong track,” while 47% said it is going in the “right direction.” Voters are similarly split on the direction of North Carolina. While nearly 20% are “unsure,” 41.7% said the state is on the “wrong track,” and 38.9% said it is headed in the “right direction.”
North Carolinians are also closely divided on the generic ballots for state legislature and Congress. The congressional race is split by a tenth of a point, with 46% of voters intending to vote for a Republican candidate and 46.1% supporting a Democratic candidate. For the state legislature, 45.2% of voters said they intend to vote for a Republican, while 44.7% said they would vote for a Democrat.
With the 250th anniversary of American independence beginning next year, we asked voters about their opinions of the American Revolution and the Founders. The vast majority of voters (65.9%) said they have a favorable view of both the Founders and the principles of the Revolution. A combined 14.9% said they had an unfavorable opinion of the Founders (7%), the principles (4.2%), or both (3.7%). There were noticeable racial discrepancies among these opinions, with only 30% of black voters expressing a positive view of both the Founders and the principles, compared to 75% of white voters. A combined 37% of black voters shared a negative opinion of the Founders (17%), the principles (7%), or both (13%).
Black voters were also the most heavily concerned about crime in their neighborhood. While the Carolina Journal Poll found that 63.2% of all voters were concerned about crime and safety in their neighborhood, only 23.8% of those said they were “very concerned.” On the other hand, nearly 68% of Black voters said they were concerned about crime. Of those, 38.5% said they were “very” concerned.
When we asked voters to select the three types of crime that they were most concerned about, traffic safety was at the top of the list (46%), followed by drug-related issues (43.4%), property crime (36.1%), cybersecurity threats (27.8%), violent crime (25.8%), police-community relations (20.2%), and gang activity (12%).
Most voters have a favorable impression of their local law enforcement. When asked how voters would rate the performance of their local law enforcement, a majority (63.2%) said either “good” (42.7%) or “excellent” (20.5%). Only 7.8% said “poor,” and 23.3% said “fair.” Voters 18–34 were the most likely to be critical of law enforcement, with 14% saying their local law enforcement performed poorly, compared to 10% of voters aged 35–49, 9% of voters aged 50–64, and just 2% of voters over 65.
Similarly, an age-related pattern emerged in opinions on tariffs. While an average of 62.4% of voters believe that tariffs raise the prices of consumer goods, the share of voters who share this belief goes down with age. An overwhelming majority (80%) of young voters believe that tariffs raise the price of goods, compared to 69% of voters aged 35–49, 56% of voters aged 50–64, and 55% of voters over 65.
“Many North Carolinians are already worried about making ends meet,” Bryson continued. “If more tariffs continue to be proposed and go into effect, we should anticipate that this concern will worsen.”
The cost of goods is particularly important, as voters expressed concerns about the prices of consumer goods. When we asked voters what the most significant source of stress in their life is at the moment, 45.9% said household costs (groceries, housing, utility bills, etc.), 22.5% answered the cost of healthcare, 10.1% said the amount of debt they have, 8.1% said the amount of money they get paid, and 6.6% said the amount of money they have saved. Nearly three-quarters of voters (73.3%) also shared that the prices of household goods are more financially impactful than interest rates (21.8%).
When it comes to trade policy, a plurality of voters (45.6%) said “encouraging free-market competition and lower trade barriers” is a better approach than “using tariffs and subsidies to protect US industries” (36.6%). Regarding manufacturing, a plurality of voters (44.3%) said they do not believe that the US has added manufacturing jobs since President Trump took office in January. Slightly fewer (40.2%) said they think the US has added manufacturing jobs.
See full results See poll crosstabs
For questions, or to arrange an interview, please contact Brenée Goforth Swanzy, at bgoforth@carolinajournal.com
The Carolina Journal Poll, formerly known as the Civitas Poll, has conducted live-caller voting in North Carolina since May 2005. The Carolina Journal is the only state-based news organization offering statewide independent, nonpartisan data on a regular basis. Our polls have provided vital insights on what North Carolina voters think of the leaders and issues facing the state and nation.
Founded in 1990, the John Locke Foundation is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization committed to working on behalf of truth, freedom, and the future of North Carolina.
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